Saturday, May 19, 2012
Have we turned the corner?
Have we turned the corner? We'll if we haven't, we are certainly peeking around it with a giraffe-like neck.
More and more, I hear everyone around the real estate industry bemoaning the fact that there is low inventory or no inventory. "If I had another listing like this one, I could sell it 20 times". There are Buyers out there and no product to offer. The tide is changing from a Buyer's market to a Seller's market by strict definition: A market which has more buyers than sellers. High prices result from this excess of demand over supply.
This is certainly supported by the prices trending upward through the $500,000 level accompanied by the multiple offers have have been prominent for a number of months; in addition, unemployment figures are showing signs of improvement for numerous consecutive months. New businesses/restaurants are starting to pop up in and around the valley ... All favorable signs that we may be inching out of this hole "recession" -OR- is it springing from the hope that the election year brings?
Another key factor is that the Mortgage loan delinquency rates are at their lowest since 2009. The national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) declined in the first three months of 2012 to 5.78 percent. This improvement ends two quarters of increases that began in the 3rd quarter of 2011, according to TransUnion (One of the big three credit-reporting agencies). Prior to the 3rd quarter of 2011, 60-day mortgage delinquency rates had dropped for six consecutive quarters. This latest quarter brings the delinquency rate to its lowest point since the first quarter of 2009. Between fourth quarter 2011 and first quarter of 2012, all but eight states experienced decreases in their mortgage delinquency rates; and TransUnion forecasts mortgage delinquency rates to drift downward in 2012 as more homeowners are able to repay their mortgage.
As the season winds down, interest is still very high and should remain as such through the start of the next season. We will have an interesting interlude called the Presidential Campaign and by the time those results are in, the nationa largest lenders should likely have made a decision on their shadow industry and how they will we dealing with it. Stay tuned for more exciting news ... and as always ...
Keep the faith!
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